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{"id":37404,"date":"2024-03-25T10:25:16","date_gmt":"2024-03-25T07:25:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bankavitrini.com\/?p=37404"},"modified":"2024-03-25T10:42:47","modified_gmt":"2024-03-25T07:42:47","slug":"tcmbnin-antibiyotik-tedavisi-sonrasi-piyasadan-dengelenme-sinyalleri-geliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bankavitrini.com\/tcmbnin-antibiyotik-tedavisi-sonrasi-piyasadan-dengelenme-sinyalleri-geliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB’nin ‘antibiyotik’ tedavisi sonras\u0131 piyasadan dengelenme sinyalleri geliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z haftaya TCMB’nin damga vurdu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Yerinde, nicelik kadar niteli\u011fini de kuvvetli ad\u0131mlar sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrk mali piyasalar\u0131nda var olan t\u00fcrb\u00fclans veya panik havas\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmi\u015f oldu. Gelin birlikte de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m. TCMB’nin 500 baz puan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 yaparak 1 hafta vadeli repo ihale faizini (politika faizi) %45 seviyesinden %50 seviyesine y\u00fckseltmesi\u00a0sonras\u0131nda, bor\u00e7 alma ve bor\u00e7 verme faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 da (faiz koridorunun alt ve \u00fcst band\u0131)\u00a0+\/- 150 baz puandan\u00a0+\/-300 baz puana getirdi. B\u00f6ylelikle, TCMB, bankalar\u0131n likidite ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gidermek i\u00e7in bazen politika faizinden (%50) fonlama yapmay\u0131p, faiz koridorunun \u00fcst band\u0131n\u0131 yani %53 seviyesini g\u00f6stererek asl\u0131nda efektif anlamda 5 baz puandan da fazla bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmi\u015f oldu.<\/li>\n
Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc ortalama fonlama maliyeti, %50 seviyesinden olan politika faizinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ve %52,75 seviyesine ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da TL Ref faiz oran\u0131 grafi\u011fine bakabilirsiniz). TCMB’nin spek\u00fclasyonu \u00f6nleyecek, paran\u0131n maliyetini art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ve elbette ge\u00e7en haftalardaki miktarsal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 da hep birlikte de\u011ferlendirirsek, USDTRY kuru, Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) \u00f6ncesi 32,40’l\u0131 seviyelerden i\u015flem g\u00f6rmesi ard\u0131ndan karar sonras\u0131 31,75 seviyesine kadar gerilemi\u015f ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 32 seviyesinin etraf\u0131nda denge bulmu\u015ftu. Elbette, eski tecr\u00fcbeler hemen unutulmuyor… Karar sonras\u0131 kur\u00a0cephesinde ya\u015fanan sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc TCMB’nin d\u00f6viz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile ili\u015fkilendirenler olsa da, say\u0131lar\u0131n dili ile konu\u015fursak, analitik bilan\u00e7oya g\u00f6re TCMB’nin net d\u00f6viz pozisyonunda ya\u015fanan de\u011fi\u015fimin 273 milyon dolar art\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 13 g\u00fcnl\u00fck kesintisiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanan ilk art\u0131\u015f\u0131n kura m\u00fcdahale olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor (bak\u0131n\u0131z grafik).<\/li>\n
Elbette, y\u00fcksek faizin kredi piyasas\u0131n\u0131 so\u011futmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, krediye ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131n da zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 (miktarsal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma) t\u00fcketicinin kredi olmadan talebi yava\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u015firketlerin y\u00fcksek kredi faizleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda beklemeye\u00a0ge\u00e7erek yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 da yava\u015flamas\u0131 \/ ertelemesi elbette borsa i\u00e7in de iyi bir haber te\u015fkil etmiyor. Yine de, TCMB’nin agresif ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye’ye mesafeli bakan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n ‘so\u011fuklu\u011funu’ k\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye’ye geri geleceklerini fiyatlayan Borsa \u0130stanbul’un lokomotif endeksi bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, ge\u00e7en haftay\u0131 %12,87 y\u00fckseli\u015fle g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde tamamlad\u0131. Ana endeksin %3,20 y\u00fckseldi\u011fi haftada, s\u0131nai endeksi ise (faiz fakt\u00f6r\u00fc) haftay\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle tamamlad\u0131. CDS risk primi \u00f6nemli\u00a0bir de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermeden 317 baz puan seviyesinde sal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u00a0not edelim. T\u00fcrkiye’de art\u0131k se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde son haftaday\u0131z. Bug\u00fcnden itibaren siyasetin daha da \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. 60 milyon se\u00e7menden fazla ki\u015finin sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na ge\u00e7ece\u011fi yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde dikkatler \u0130stanbul ve Ankara’da olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
TCMB, b\u00fcltenimizin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kapsarken, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalarda ise FED toplant\u0131s\u0131 ard\u0131ndan ye\u015feren \u00fcmitlere ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n bir nebze de olsun de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 not etmemiz gerekiyor. Avrupa ve Amerika Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n Haziran ay\u0131nda faiz indirimine ba\u015flayacaklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde artan beklentiye ra\u011fmen, EURUSD paritesi her 1,09 seviyesinin \u00fczerine y\u00fckselmesi ard\u0131ndan sert bir sat\u0131\u015fla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015farak 1,08 seviyesinin diplerini test etti\u011fine \u015fahit oluyoruz. Teknik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da 1,0775 seviyesinin destek g\u00f6revi \u00fcstlenece\u011fi ve al\u0131m y\u00f6n\u00fcnde s\u0131k\u0131 bir zarar kes stratejisi uygulanarak seviyenin kollanabilece\u011fini\u00a0d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/li>\n
DXY’nin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrine ra\u011fmen, ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil faizinin %4,35 seviyesinden %4,20 seviyesine kadar geri \u00e7ekilmesi ile faiz getirisi olmayan alt\u0131n ve bitcoin y\u00fckseli\u015f isteklerini koruyamasalar da, defans hatt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc tutarak s\u0131ras\u0131 2,170 ve 67bin dolar seviyesinden i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye devam ettiklerini not edelim. Teknik bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile alt\u0131nda 2,550 dolar hedefimizi korurken,\u00a0Bitcoin’in cephesinde ise riskleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/li>\n
Paskalya tatili \u00f6ncesinde yeni haftan\u0131n bir nebze de olsun daha sakin ge\u00e7me ihtimalini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmiyoruz. ABD’de Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc FED’in enflasyon g\u00f6stergesi olarak kabul etti\u011fi ki\u015fisel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 (PCE) endeksi yay\u0131mlanacak. PCE verisinin \u015eubat ay\u0131nda %0,3 y\u00fckselece\u011fi, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda ise %2,8 seviyesinde sabit kalaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu oranlar\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi durumunda, Haziran ay\u0131nda y\u00f6nelik\u00a0beklenen faiz indiriminin de zarar g\u00f6rebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell’\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta \u00fcmitleri ye\u015ferten a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ard\u0131ndan vadeli i\u015flemler Haziran’da %74 olas\u0131l\u0131kla faiz indirimine gidilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yorlar. Bu oran \u00f6nceki hafta %55 seviyesindeydi.<\/li>\n
Yeni g\u00fcn ve hafta ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda, Asya borsalar\u0131 yatay seyrederken, Japonya’n\u0131n bir d\u00f6nemin sonuna i\u015faret eden negatif faiz politikas\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar bu ad\u0131m\u0131n faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ederek YEN aleyhine pozisyonlanmaya devam ettiklerini de g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0 Bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc toparlanamayan YEN, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en zay\u0131f seviyesi olan 151,50 – 152 seviyelerinde sal\u0131nmaya devam etmesi de otoritenin piyasaya m\u00fcdahale ihtimalini s\u0131cak tutuyor. Rusya’n\u0131n ba\u015fkenti Moskova’da bir konser salonuna d\u00fczenlenen ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131nda 150 ki\u015fiden fazla insan hayat\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi sald\u0131r\u0131da, sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirenler DAE\u015e mensuplar\u0131 yakaland\u0131lar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n